Wednesday, June 27, 2012

China’s Housing Boom Has Ended

By Tianlun Jian




Is the ice thawing and spring returning to China’s housing market? Investors have recently dared to ask this question.

The recent interest rate cuts and Premier Wen Jiabao’s words re-emphasizing “stable growth” have led the market to wonder if the Chinese state has changed its policies for controlling the housing bubble.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Worsening Economy Forces China’s Interest Rate Cuts


Worsening Economy Forces China’s Interest Rate Cuts
Cuts give banks greater flexibility in offering loans

By Tianlun Jian

Fears of a hard landing appear to have caused the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to have reached into its tool kit to find another way to spur China’s sluggish economy. Along the way PBOC may have taken a step toward reform of China’s banking system.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

China’s Economic Reform Requires Political Reform


By Jian Tianlun

China’s economic reforms have reached a critical point, and the economy designed to support the Communist Party’s rule now calls that rule into question.


When Deng Xiaoping proposed economic reforms in 1978, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) found maintaining its rule difficult. The Chinese economy was about to collapse, and people’s daily living had become a problem.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Can China Break the Banking Monopoly?



By Tianlun Jian


Currently, the Chinese mainland banking sector is still dominated by four state-owned banks (Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and Construction Bank). China is such a big country, the second largest economy in the world with a population of 1.3 billion, yet it has only a few dozen banks, which coupled with foreign bank branches total one hundred banks at most. In contrast, the U.S. has 300 million people, yet more than 7,000 banks. Among the one hundred banks in China, four state-owned banks control more than 80% of the business.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Why Hasn't China's Housing Bubble Burst Yet?


By Tianlun Jian

After my series of articles on China's housing markets, some readers have asked why housing in China is so expensive? The bubble is known to everyone, and the government is taking measures to control it. Why has the bubble not burst?  Actually many researchers have forecast that China's housing markets would collapse years ago. Beijing's housing prices were already as high as those in Manhattan even in 2007.


Indeed, there are many things that could have triggered the collapse of China's housing market: the financial system, high housing prices, local government debt, social unrest due to huge income gaps, forced demolition, etc.—just to name a few.

Monday, March 12, 2012

China’s Real Estate Spirals Downward


By Gao Zitan
Epoch Times Staff




China’s real estate (RE) market is in a downward spiral. A big drop of 30-50 percent this year is not impossible, according to a Chinese economist.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

China’s Real Estate Bubble Ready to Pop


By Tianlun Jian


The big question for economists, analysts, and investors about China’s economy has been not whether China’s enormous real estate bubble will burst, but when. Recent data suggests the time is fast approaching.


According to China’s Bureau of National Statistics, in October, in 70 large and mid-size cities, there are more cities whose real estate prices have moved down than cities whose prices have moved up, for both newly built apartments and existing ones.

Macroeconomic Policies Widen Income Gap in China


Stimulus Drives Uneven Chinese Recovery


Chinese Economy Driven by the End of Communism